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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Martin Wolf Supports William Poole

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2007 12:52:00 AM

A little background (as if everyone doesn't know the story). On July 20th, St. Louis Fed President William Poole gave a speech: Reputation and the Non-Prime Mortgage Market.

As I noted at the time - just two days after Fed Chairman Bernanke told Congress the mortgage problems were contained to subprime ARMs - Poole correctly expanded the discussion beyond subprime to include Alt-A. But what really got people's attention was this comment by Poole:

"Financial markets have dealt harshly, but on the whole appropriately, with banks, hedge funds and certain other investors who were heavily exposed to the riskiest segments of the non-prime securitized mortgage market."
Jim Cramer responded by calling Poole "shameful". (here is the video of Cramer)

Now Martin Wolf writes in the Financial Times: Fear makes a welcome return
Panic follows mania as night follows day. The great 19th-century economist and journalist, Walter Bagehot, knew this better than anybody. Lombard Street, his masterpiece, is dedicated to the phenomenon. It is devoted, too, to how central banks should deal with its results.
...
This is not new. It is as old as financial capitalism itself. The late Hyman Minsky, who taught at the University of California, Berkeley, laid down the canonical model. The process starts with “displacement”, some event that changes people’s perceptions of the future. Then come rising prices in the affected sector. The third stage is easy credit and its handmaiden, financial innovation.

The fourth stage is over-trading, when markets depend on a fresh supply of “greater fools”. The fifth stage is euphoria, when the ignorant hope to enjoy the wealth gained by those who came before them. The warnings of those who cry “bubble” are ridiculed, because these Cassandras have been wrong for so long. In the sixth stage comes insider profit-taking. Finally, comes revulsion.
And Martin Wolf on Poole and Cramer:
When William Poole, chairman of the St Louis Federal Reserve, said that “the Fed should respond to market upsets only when it has become clear that they threaten to undermine achievement of fundamental objectives of price stability and high employment or when financial market developments threaten market processes themselves”, I gave a cheer.

Not so Jim Cramer, hedge fund manager and television pundit, who declared last Friday that chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, “is being an academic!...My people have been in this game for 25 years. And they are losing their jobs and these firms are going to go out of business, and he’s nuts! They’re nuts! They know nothing! . . .  The Fed is asleep.”

So capitalism is for poor people and socialism is for capitalists. This view is not just offensive. It is catastrophic.
I recommend reading all of Wolf's piece.