by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2008 08:35:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.

Seasonally adjusted permits fell:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,048,000. This is 3.0 percent below the revised December rate of 1,080,000 and is 33.1 percent below the revised January 2007 estimate of 1,566,000.

Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 673,000; this is 4.1 percent below the December figure of 702,000.

Starts were flat, with starts for single family units at the lowest level since Jan 1991:

Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,012,000. This is 0.8 percent above the revised December estimate of 1,004,000, but is 27.9 percent below the revised January 2007 rate of 1,403,000.

Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 743,000; this is 5.2 percent below the December figure of 784,000.

And Completions were up slightly:

Privately-owned housing completions in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,351,000. This is 1.8 percent above the revised December estimate of 1,327,000, but is 26.2 percent below the revised January 2007 rate of 1,830,000.

Single-family housing completions in January were at a rate of 1,010,000; this is 1.0 percent below the December figure of 1,020,000.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of starts and completions. Completions follow starts by about 6 to 7 months.

Completions were at a 1.351 million rate in January. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next few months - to below the 1.1 million rate - impacting residential construction employment.

Even with single family starts at the lowest level since the '91 recession, when you look at inventories and new home sales, the builders are still starting too many homes ... but they are getting there.