by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2009 10:46:00 AM

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 6 states, and was unchanged in 4.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for August.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 11 states (Arkansas, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont, and Wisconsin), decreased in 36, and remained unchanged in three (New Hampshire, Ohio, and Tennessee) for a one-month diffusion index of -50. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in six states (Arkansas, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin), decreased in 40, and remained unchanged in four (Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, and Virginia) for a three-month diffusion index of -68.

The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

A large percentage of states still showed declining activity in August.