by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2009 03:49:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

First, on the market ...

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

Reader Yuri asked me if the number of 30 day delinquencies is decreasing. He was curious if the overall number of delinquencies is increasing because of the loan modifications and other actions that are limiting the outflow - but that that overall increase might be masking some improvement for the inflow of new delinquencies.

This graph shows the delinquencies by time period (30, 60, 90 day, and in foreclosure) for all loans.\

The percentage of 30 and 60 day delinquencies have decreased slightly. However the rates are still near record levels.

For the 30 day bucket, there were 3.57% percent delinquent - not much lower than the high in Q1 of 3.77%. For 60 days, the rate was 1.67% - also below the high in Q1.

Clearly most of the increase was in the 90 day and in foreclosure buckets. And that is why the modification programs are so important.

The second graph provides the same data for prime fixed rate mortgages. Both the 30 and 60 day buckets are still at record levels, although the rate of increase has slowed.

Since prime fixed rate mortgages account for about 2/3s of the mortgage market, a large portion of future foreclosures will probably be from these loans.