by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 08:50:00 PM

By request ...

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - but this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (ht Tom). This assumes that the 2007 recession has reached bottom.

The current recession has been bouncing along the bottom for a few months - so the choice of bottom is a little arbitrary (plus or minus a month or two).

Notice that the 1990 and 2001 recessions were followed by jobless recoveries - and the eventual job recovery was gradual. In earlier recessions the recovery was somewhat similar and a little faster than the decline (somewhat symmetrical).

If the current recovery was similar to the earlier recessions, the economy would recovery the 8+ million lost payroll jobs over the next 2 years. I think that is very unlikely ...