by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2010 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.5% from May to June (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 4.8% from June 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 7.3% from the bottom, but still off 5.2% from the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.5% on a YoY basis (4.8% for all retail sales). The year-over-year comparisons are easy now since retail sales collapsed in late 2008.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $360.2 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, but 4.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2009. Total sales for the April through June 2010 period were up 6.8 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2010 percent change was revised from -1.2 percent (±0.5%) to -1.1 percent (±0.2%).

Retail sales have declined for two consecutive months. This is another weak report, and the decline in sales was worse than expected.