by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2010 04:00:00 PM

UPDATE at 5:25 PM ET, 8/3/2010: AutoData revised their estimate to 11.98 million SAAR.

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 12.06 million SAAR in July. That is up 7.5% from July 2009, and up 9.1% from the June sales rate.

IMPORTANT: AutoData notes: "*The July 2010 SAAR factors have been estimated by averaging the factors from July 2007, July 2008 and July 2009. We will restate the July 2010 SAAR after the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the appropriate factors."

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 12.06 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current month sales rate.

Excluding the surge in sales during August 2009 (cash-for-clunkers), this is the highest sales rate since September 2008.

This was above most forecasts of around 11.6 to 11.8 million SAAR. Light truck sales were up significantly compared to July 2009.