by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2011 05:13:00 PM

To put the following forecasts into prespective, there were around 474,000 single-family housing starts in 2010, and about 588,000 total housing starts (the final numbers are not available yet).

From MarketWatch: Home-building rebound in 2011 a small matter

Home building is set for a rebound in 2011, with single-family housing starts projected to climb 21% to 575,000 units, the [National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Crowe] said Wednesday.

I expect a rebound for housing starts, but that forecast seems overly optimistic. Economist Tom Lawler is forecasting single-family starts at 520,000 in 2011.

And here is an even lower forecast:

“We do not see any significant increase in starts occurring this year,” said Edward Sullivan, chief economist for the Portland Cement Association. ... Sullivan forecast single-family housing starts will hit 492,000 in 2011, a 3.4% increase from 2010.

Here is a long term graph of housing starts through November ...

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Even if single-family housing starts increased to 575,000 (the NAHB forecast) that would still leave starts below the bottom of the '90/'91 recession.

Hopefully housing starts will not rebound too much, and the excess vacant housing inventory will be reduced in 2011.

The Census Bureau will report December and 2011 housing starts next Wednesday, January 19th.