by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2011 08:24:00 AM

Note: here is the economic Schedule for Week of January 16th.

Below is a summary of the previous week, mostly in graphs.

• Retail Sales increased 0.6% in December

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from November to December(seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from December 2009.

Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 13.5% from the bottom, and now 0.2% above the pre-recession peak.

This was below expectations for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales ex-autos were up 0.5%; also below expectations of a 0.7% increase. Although slightly lower than expected, retail sales are now above the pre-recession peak in November 2007.

• Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization increased in December

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in December after having risen 0.3 percent in November. ... The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose to 76.0 percent, a rate 4.6 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 76.0% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

This was above consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 75.6% for Capacity Utilization.

• Trade Deficit declined slightly in November

The trade deficit in November was $38.3 billion, down slightly from $38.4 billion in October This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2010.

Imports have been mostly flat since May, and exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.

The petroleum deficit increased in November as import prices continued to rise - averaging $76.81 per barrel in November. Prices will be even higher in December. The deficit with China increased to $25.634 billion from $25,517 in October. Once again oil and China deficits are essentially the entire trade deficit (or even more).

• CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.6% in November

CoreLogic reported that house prices declined again in November. This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index is down 5.07% over the last year, and off 30.9% from the peak.

The index is only 1.2% above the post-bubble low set in March 2009, and I expect to see a new post-bubble low for this index - possibly as early as next month or maybe in early 2011.

• Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel index increased in December

Ceridian-UCLA reported "The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers and consumers, surged 2.4 percent in December and pushed the PCI above its previous 2010 peak established in May."

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

• NFIB: Small Business Optimism index declined slightly in December

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased slightly to 92.6 in December from 93.2 in November.

According to the NFIB: "This marks the 36th month of Index readings in the recession level".

The decline this month was small, and in general this index has been improving - but very slowly.

• Other Economic Stories ...
• From the Financial Times: Lisbon succeeds with debt auction
• From the NY Times: Portugal Bond Sale Succeeds Despite Budget Woes
• From the WSJ: Strong Demand at European Debt Auctions
• From the Association of American Railroads: AAR: Rail Traffic increased in December
• Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity continued to expand moderately"
• From RealtyTrac: Record Foreclosure activity in 2010
• Unofficial Problem Bank list increases to 933 Institutions

Best wishes to all!