by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2011 06:46:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos and Anton Troinovski at the WSJ: Key to Real-Estate Rebound: Solid Economic Growth

"The No. 1 biggest risk is that, for whatever reason, the overall economy does not grow sufficiently to produce any meaningful rebound in jobs," said Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Leesburg, Va.
...
New housing construction is stuck at its lowest levels in more than 40 years. "That will help absorb supply in ways that a lot of people underestimate," Mr. Lawler said.

The key to recovery in real estate is absorbing the excess supply. Lawler makes two key points: 1) We need job growth (and that would mean household formation absorbing the excess supply) and, 2) Housing completions are at record lows (not adding to the excess supply).

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending January 1st
• Schedule for Week of January 2, 2011