by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index^TM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

Press Release: PCI Posts 14th Consecutive Month of Year-Over-Year Growth

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.3% on a seasonally and monthly workday adjusted basis in January, giving up some of December’s exceptional 1.8% sequential gain. Because of the very strong December showing, the three-month annualized moving average is up 5.1% and gaining strength.
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The combined effect of very strong sequential gains in December and holding onto most of those gains in January suggest growth in industrial production for January equal to 0.3% when reported on February 16th.
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The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking ...

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise). Industrial Production for December will be released February 16th.