by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2011 06:10:00 PM

This morning I posted some data and analysis from economist Tom Lawler based on the 2010 Census: Lawler: Housing Vacancy Survey appears to massively overstate number of vacant housing units.

Lawler's key point was that when compared to the Census 2010 data, the Housing Vacancy Survey (that most analysts use) "massively overstates" the number of vacant housing units in these four states (and probably nationally).

Note: The Census bureau has released data for only four states so far, and will release data for all 50 states by April 1st.

Here is another question: At the current rate of population growth, how long will it take to lower the vacancy rate back to the Census 2000 level?

	Louisiana	Mississippi	New Jersey	Virginia
Percent Excess Housing Units compared to Census 2000	1.7%	2.6%	2.1%	2.1%
Excess Housing Units	33,405	33,143	74,625	70,664
Population Needed to Absorb at current people per household ratio	87,618	88,140	204,113	185,004
Years to absorb at current rate of population growth	13.6	7.2	5.4	2.0

The above table provides the calculation. Note: This assumes that the people per household in each state will remain the same.

Of course Louisiana, and to some extent Mississippi, are special cases because of hurricane Katrina. The population in both states increased slowly over the last decade - and at that rate of population growth it will take many years to absorb the excess vacant units.

In New Jersey it will take 5.4 years to absorb the excess, and in Virginia (a fast growing state over the last decade) it will still take 2.0 years.

Of course the number of people per household could decline or the population could grow quicker over the next few years - but this suggests there is still a large excess inventory of vacant housing units in these states. This is one of the calculations I'll be looking at as the Census 2010 data is released.