by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2011 02:43:00 PM

It is hard to guess the impact of the supply chain disruption. A week or two shutdown will probably have minimal impact on sales, but a delay until May would be significant.

From Steve Lohr at the NY Times: Stress Test for the Global Supply Chain

[T]he disaster in Japan, experts say, presents a first-of-its-kind challenge, even if much remains uncertain.

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, and a vital supplier of parts and equipment for major industries like computers, electronics and automobiles. The worst of the damage was northeast of Tokyo, near the quake’s epicenter, though Japan’s manufacturing heartland is farther south. But greater problems will emerge if rolling electrical blackouts and transportation disruptions across the country continue for long.

Throughout Japan, many plants are closed at least for days, with restart dates uncertain.

And from the WSJ: Supply Shortages Stall Auto Makers

A shortage of Japanese-built electronic parts will force GM to close a plant in Zaragoza, Spain, on Monday and cancel shifts at a factory in Eisenach, Germany, on Monday and Tuesday, the company said Friday.
...
Japanese auto makers Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. have halted production in Japan in the way of last week's earthquake and tsunami.

... Honda [warned] U.S. dealers that it isn't sure if it will be able to resume full production at certain Japanese plants before May ...

And from the WSJ: Nissan to Resume Production in Japan

Nissan Motor Co. said Sunday that it will start parts production and vehicle assembly operations this week in Japan, becoming the first car maker to restart its entire auto production process after a devastating quake brought the country's auto industry to a standstill.