by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2011 03:52:00 PM

• From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on my regional tracking – with a caveat that some local MLS are late in issuing statistical reports – I estimate that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million in April, up 1% from March’s pace, but down 11.2% from last April’s tax-credit-goosed pace. Unadjusted sales should show a larger YOY decline of about 13.9%, reflecting one fewer business day this April than last April. Seasonal adjustment is a bit tricky this April, given the exceptionally late Easter. Sales in areas that last April saw the largest YOY gains generally saw the largest YOY declines, while sales in many “distressed” areas show much less “tax-credit-related” swings.

My tracking of homes listing for sale suggests a modest 1.5-2.0% increase from March to April. However, in each of the last two years the NAR has “shown” a MASSIVELY higher monthly increase in listings from March to April. Looking at year-ago numbers, I’d “guesstimate” that homes listing for sale were down about 8% nationwide at the end of this April vs. last April. If NAR numbers show comparable YOY declines, then NAR would report a 4.4% monthly increase. Listings in Florida compared to a year ago are down especially sharply.

These aggregate forecasts aren’t much different from “consensus,” and as such are not very interesting.

CR Note: they are interesting to me! The NAR reports on Thursday and the consensus is for sales of 5.2 million (SAAR).

• An addition to the weekly schedule (updated every Sunday in the menu bar above). On Thursday at 10:00 AM ET: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) 1st Quarter 2011 National Delinquency Survey (NDS). This is expected to show a significant decline in overall delinquencies. I'll be on the conference call at 10:30 AM.

• From the LA Times: Unexpected state revenue leaps to $6.6 billion. The state is now forecasting $6.6 billion more in revenue of the next year (probably thanks to the tech boom).

• And this weekend post has generated a lot of feedback: The upward slope of Real House Prices.

Best to all