by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2011 03:38:00 PM

This will never happen ...

A quote from Reuters: Exclusive: S&P to deeply cut U.S. ratings if debt payment missed

"If the U.S. government misses a payment, it goes to D," [Standard & Poor's managing director John Chambers told Reuters]. "That would happen right after August 4, when the bills mature, because they don't have a grace period."

That would be the first default in U.S. history.

Reuters quotes Chambers as saying that he views the likelihood of a U.S. default as "extremely low," and that he expects a last minute agreement.

Of course there will be a last minute agreement; the debt ceiling is all about political posing.

Here is what I wrote in early May:

Congress will probably push this to the brink, but they will raise the debt ceiling before the country defaults. The first rule for most politicians is to get re-elected, and the easiest way to guarantee losing in 2012 is to throw the country back into recession. If that happened, I believe the voters would correctly blame the leaders of Congress, and I think Congress knows that too. Therefore it won't happen. I'm not worried and neither are investors.