by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 02:01:00 PM

Import traffic declined at the LA area ports in June. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possible hints about the trade report for June. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down 0.3% from May, and outbound traffic is up 0.5%.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of June, loaded inbound traffic was down 5% compared to June 2010, and loaded outbound traffic was up 7% compared to June 2010.

Exports have been increasing, although bouncing around month-to-month. Exports are up from last year, but still below the peak in 2008.

Imports were down from last year, and are below the levels of June in 2005 through 2008 too.

In May, LA port traffic suggested in increase in trade with China (and other Asians countries), and this month the data suggests a decline in imports with Asian countries. Combined with a decline in oil prices, I expect the trade deficit to decline sharply in June.