by Calculated Risk on 7/02/2011 08:03:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending July 1st
• Unofficial Problem Bank list at 1,003 Institutions and State Stress Level

The key report this week will be the employment situation report for June on Friday.

Note: Reis is expected to release their Q2 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate reports this week. Last quarter Reis reported falling vacancy rates for apartments, rising vacancy rates for regional malls, and the first decline (small) in the office vacancy rate since 2007.

----- Monday, July 4th -----
Independence Day: All US markets will be closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

----- Tuesday, July 5th -----
10:00 AM ET: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for May. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in orders.

----- Wednesday, July 6th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through early summer (not counting all cash purchases).

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 54.0 in June.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index. The May ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 54.6%, up from 52.8% in April. The employment index increased in May to 54.0%, up from 51.9% in April. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

----- Thursday, July 7th -----
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +70,000 payroll jobs in June, up from the 38,000 reported in May.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims has been elevated for the last couple of months. The consensus is for a decrease to 420,000 from 428,000 last week.

----- Friday, July 8th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for June.

The consensus is for an increase of 110,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, up from the 54,000 jobs added in May.

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The consensus forecast for June is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 9.1% in June.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through May. This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession.

So far this year, the economy has added 908,000 private sector jobs, or about 181 thousand per month. There have been 783,000 total non-farm jobs added this year or 157 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.95 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for May. The consensus is for a $4.3 billion increase in consumer credit.

Best wishes to All!