by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2011 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:

Personal income decreased $7.3 billion, or 0.1 percent ... in August ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased less than 0.1 percent in August, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in July. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August,compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in July. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

PCE increased 0.2 in August, and real PCE decreased slightly as the price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August.

Note: The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent.

The personal saving rate was at 4.5% in August.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $519.3 billion in August, compared with $550.5 billion in July. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.5 percent in August, compared with 4.7 percent in July.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the August Personal Income report.

Using the two month method to estimate Q3 PCE gives a 1.1% annualized rate (another weak quarter), however it appears PCE increased in September (auto sales are up) and June was especially weak in Q2 - so real PCE growth will probably be in the 1.5% range in Q3 (still weak).