by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2011 12:32:00 PM

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Sept 30th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 2nd

The September employment report will be released on Friday and the consensus is for an increase of 65,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September, up from the zero jobs added in August. Goldman Sachs is forecasting an increase of 50,000 jobs in September.

A key point to remember is that the Verizon labor dispute subtracted 45,000 jobs from the August report and those jobs will be added back in the September report. So even if September was the same as August, we would see 45,000 more jobs added.

Note: The Verizon labor dispute didn't show up in the ADP employment report because the ADP counts employees on the payroll even if they aren't working.

Another key point is that the manufacturing surveys (a small percentage of overall employment) mostly suggested employment expansion in September - and an improvement from August (See table below). Also the Chicago PMI indicated stronger employment expansion in September than in August.

However weekly initial unemployment claims for the BLS reference week were higher in September than in August - suggesting more layoffs. Still - overall - it appears September was somewhat better than August.

Here is a table for the various employment components from several surveys in September starting in August 2007 (before the recession). Here is the spreadsheet in excel. Most of these surveys are just for manufacturing (Fed surveys), however the Chicago PMI includes both manufacturing and services.

Note: Above 50 is expansion for the Chicago PMI, above 0 is expansion for the Fed manufacturing surveys.

Employment Surveys through Sept 2011 Above 50 is expansion for Chicago PMI, All others above zero
	Chicago PMI	NY Fed (Empire State)	Philly Fed	Richmond Fed	Kansas City Fed	Dallas Fed	Avg Fed Mfg Surveys
Aug-07	53.2	11.8	14.7	-1	0	1.6	5.4
Sep-07	51.8	19.2	4.3	0	-1	7.2	5.9
Oct-07	50.2	17.4	7.3	-3	-2	5.8	5.1
Nov-07	52.6	7.1	4.0	-2	-5	2.0	1.2
Dec-07	49.3	5.0	1.3	4	4	-3.3	2.2
Jan-08	47.0	2.4	1.5	-2	12	9.0	4.6
Feb-08	33.5	-2.1	6.2	-2	1	5.5	1.7
Mar-08	44.6	4.5	0.6	-7	-3	4.6	-0.1
Apr-08	35.3	0.0	-4.2	-14	0	2.0	-3.2
May-08	41.2	1.1	-1.9	-10	-2	-5.9	-3.7
Jun-08	46.7	1.2	-8.7	-14	-13	-4.4	-7.8
Jul-08	45.9	-6.3	-6.2	-4	1	7.1	-1.7
Aug-08	39.2	-4.5	-8.4	-19	-3	-5.3	-8.0
Sep-08	49.1	-4.6	-4.5	-21	-11	-5.1	-9.2
Oct-08	41.5	-3.7	-22.3	-22	-14	-11.5	-14.7
Nov-08	33.4	-28.9	-26.5	-25	-22	-20.1	-24.5
Dec-08	39.6	-23.4	-31.3	-34	-32	-21.0	-28.3
Jan-09	34.8	-26.1	-37.1	-29	-34	-28.2	-30.9
Feb-09	25.2	-39.1	-41.0	-33	-33	-40.1	-37.2
Mar-09	28.1	-38.2	-49.6	-29	-35	-50.3	-40.4
Apr-09	31.8	-28.1	-38.8	-28	-23	-39.7	-31.5
May-09	25.0	-23.9	-29.8	-17	-16	-34.1	-24.2
Jun-09	28.9	-21.8	-23.2	-13	-13	-27.8	-19.8
Jul-09	35.3	-20.8	-23.7	-14	-16	-23.4	-19.6
Aug-09	38.7	-7.5	-18.1	-12	-10	-15.4	-12.6
Sep-09	38.8	-8.3	-16.1	-4	-2	-8.9	-7.9
Oct-09	38.3	10.4	-10.4	-4	-4	-12.2	-4.0
Nov-09	41.9	1.3	-3.5	-10	-2	-15.8	-6.0
Dec-09	51.2	-5.3	3.7	2	-4	-3.8	-1.5
Jan-10	59.8	4.0	6.2	2	2	-3.7	2.1
Feb-10	53.0	5.6	8.0	7	-2	-4.2	2.9
Mar-10	53.1	12.4	9.3	8	2	4.5	7.2
Apr-10	57.2	20.3	7.4	19	5	11.6	12.7
May-10	49.2	22.4	3.4	7	2	13.8	9.7
Jun-10	54.2	12.4	-1.0	2	0	7.1	4.1
Jul-10	56.6	7.9	6.6	8	5	7.2	6.9
Aug-10	55.5	14.3	-3.9	3	-1	-3.3	1.8
Sep-10	53.4	14.9	1.4	-1	-2	3.7	3.4
Oct-10	54.6	21.7	1.4	5	0	-2.5	5.1
Nov-10	56.3	9.1	11.7	10	8	7.1	9.2
Dec-10	60.2	-3.4	4.3	15	11	16.1	8.6
Jan-11	64.1	8.4	17.6	14	8	9.3	11.5
Feb-11	59.8	3.6	23.6	15	23	10.5	15.1
Mar-11	65.6	9.1	18.2	16	25	11.6	16.0
Apr-11	63.7	23.1	12.3	12	17	13.4	15.6
May-11	60.8	24.7	22.1	16	9	11.6	16.7
Jun-11	58.7	10.2	4.1	14	17	5.3	10.1
Jul-11	51.5	1.1	8.9	4	4	12.1	6.0
Aug-11	52.1	3.3	-5.2	1	8	5.4	2.5
Sep-11	60.6	-5.4	5.8	7	12	13.4	6.6