by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2011 03:09:00 PM

From Freddie Mac: 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Averages 3.99 Percent

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey(® (PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates changing little from the previous week amid a mix of economic data reports as the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.99 percent, dropping below 4.00 percent for the second time this year. The 30-year fixed averaged 3.94 percent in the October 6, 2011 survey.

And an update to a a couple of graphs - the first comparing 30 year conforming mortgage rates to the MBA Refinance index (on a monthly basis), and the 2nd graph is weekly comparing the Refinance index to the Ten Year yield.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the MBA's refinance index (monthly average) and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971. Mortgage rates are currently near the record low for the last 40 years.

It usually takes around a 50 bps decline from the previous mortgage rate low to get a huge refinance boom - and rates might not fall that far - 30 year conforming mortgage rates were at 4.23% in October 2010, so a 50 bps drop would be 3.73%.

The second graph compares refinance activity to the ten year yield.

The ten year yield is below the level during the 2008 financial crisis - thanks to weak economic growth and the European financial crisis.

Even with conforming 30 year mortgage rates slightly under 4%, there still hasn't be a huge pickup in mortgage refinance activity. This is because borrowers who can refinance, already have - and the rest either can't qualify or have negative equity (the new HARP refinance program will help a little).

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 390,000
• Trade Deficit declines in September as Exports increase