by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2011 09:49:00 PM

Today NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun provided his annual overly optimistic forecast for next year, but more importantly he provided an update on the coming revisions:

NAR presently is benchmarking existing-home sales, and downward revisions are expected for totals in recent years, although there will be little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change. There will be will be no change to median prices or month’s supply of inventory. Publication of the improved measurement methodology is expected in the near future.

Sales will be revised down for the last few years, and inventory will also be revised down, with no change to months-of-supply. I expect sales for 2011 will be down around 10% to 15% (less for earlier years), and inventory by the same amount.