by Calculated Risk on 1/19/2012 12:22:00 PM

A few key points for 2011:
• There were a record low number of total completions.
• There were a record low number of single family completions.
• There were a record low number of housing units added to the housing stock, and this suggests the excess vacant inventory declined significantly.
• Multifamily starts were up 60%. This will probably increase further in 2012.
• Single family starts were down 9% to a new record low. This looks to rebound in 2012.

Multifamily starts were up 60% in 2011 over 2010 - from 104,300 in 2010 to 167,400 in 2011. This will probably increase further in 2012 since 167 thousand is still a fairly low level of starts. Single family starts were down 9% in 2011 to 428,600. This is the lowest level of single family starts since the Census Bureau started tracking starts in 1959!

Since it typically takes over a year to complete a multifamily building, and since multifamily starts were are record lows in 2009 (and close in 2010), there were a near record low number of multifamily completions in 2011.

The following graph shows the lag between multi-family starts and completions using a 12 month rolling total. The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

Click on graph for larger image.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased all year. Multifamily starts were at 167.4 thousand units in 2011.

Completions (red line) appear to have bottomed. This is probably because builders rushed some projects to completion because of the strong demand for rental units. Multifamily completions were at 130.5 thousand in 2011, just above the record low of 127.1 thousand in 1993.

Total completions were at a record low in 2011 (as were single family completions), and the U.S. added the fewest net housing units to the housing stock since the Census Bureau started tracking completions in the '60s.

Below is a table of net housing units added to the housing stock since 1990. Note: Demolitions / scrappage estimated.

This means that the overhang of excess inventory probably declined significantly in 2011.

Housing Units added to Stock (000s)
	1 to 4 Units	5+ Units	Manufactured Homes	Sub-Total	Demolitions / Scrappage	Total added to Stock
1990	1010.8	297.3	188.3	1496.4	200	1296.4
1991	874.4	216.6	170.9	1261.9	200	1061.9
1992	999.7	158	210.5	1368.2	200	1168.2
1993	1065.7	127.1	254.3	1447.1	200	1247.1
1994	1192.1	154.9	303.9	1650.9	200	1450.9
1995	1100.2	212.4	339.9	1652.5	200	1452.5
1996	1161.6	251.3	363.3	1776.2	200	1576.2
1997	1153.4	247.1	353.7	1754.2	200	1554.2
1998	1200.3	273.9	373.1	1847.3	200	1647.3
1999	1305.6	299.3	348.1	1953	200	1753
2000	1269.1	304.7	250.4	1824.2	200	1624.2
2001	1289.8	281	193.1	1763.9	200	1563.9
2002	1360.1	288.2	168.5	1816.8	200	1616.8
2003	1417.8	260.8	130.8	1809.4	200	1609.4
2004	1555	286.9	130.7	1972.6	200	1772.6
2005	1673.4	258	146.8	2078.2	200	1878.2
2006	1695.3	284.2	117.3	2096.8	200	1896.8
2007	1249.8	253	95.7	1598.5	200	1398.5
2008	842.5	277.2	81.9	1201.6	200	1001.6
2009	534.6	259.8	49.8	844.2	150	694.2
2010	505.2	146.5	50	701.7	150	551.7
2011	453.5	130.5	46	630	150	480