by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2012 12:01:00 AM

Another view on house prices from Zillow: Home Value Declines Pick Up in Fourth Quarter, But Zillow Forecasts Smaller Declines in 2012

The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, released today, show home values decreased 1.1 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2011 to $146,900. On an annual basis, this represents a 4.7 percent decline. December’s data show that sequential improvements in year-over-year numbers have stopped, and the pace of monthly depreciation has once again picked up, with December’s monthly depreciation rate at 0.6 percent.
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[W] believe 2012 will be a transitional year for real estate. Positive developments will include markets showing organic growth, and home sales increasing as the year proceeds. However, we maintain our forecast that home values will continue to fall in 2012, with the Zillow Home Value Forecast showing a 3.7 percent decline through December 2012.
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Based on these forecasts, we expect more home value declines nationally in 2012. However, most markets will see improved trends over the course of the year.

And from a press release:

“While it may be disconcerting for homeowners to see values nationally fell at a fairly rapid clip at the end of last year, that trend won’t last through 2012,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The fourth quarter’s weak performance proves that pronouncements of a bottom in home values have been premature, but the good news is that 2012 will prove to be a better year than 2011. In fact, many markets show signs of a bottom this year, although a bottom may continue to elude the nation as a whole in 2012. Fortunately, against a backdrop of modest further declines in home values, we expect that home sales will pick up briskly this year as affordable prices bring more buyers to the table – especially investors and second-home buyers.”