by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2012 12:21:00 PM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 0.3 Percent in March, Compared to March 2011, the Pulse is Down 2.2 Percent

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.3 percent in March following the 0.7 percent increase in February and the 1.7 percent decrease in January.

This puts the index down 2.2% from March 2011. Note: For comparison, the ATA Trucking index was up 5.1% year-over-year in February.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index has been weaker than the ATA trucking index and reports for rail traffic. It is possible that the high cost of fuel is shifting some long haul traffic from trucks to rail (intermodal) - but it is unclear why this index is weaker than the trucking index.
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