by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2012 07:02:00 PM

This is worth mentioning, from earlier today: The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April:

Personal income increased $31.7 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $31.8 billion, or 0.3 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in April, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in March. ... PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased less than 0.1 percent in April, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in March. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. You can really see the slow down in Q2 of last year. Even if May and June are flat compared to April this year, real PCE would increase around 2% in Q2.

Another key point is the PCE price index has only increased 1.8% over the last year, and core PCE is up 1.9%. And it looks like the year-over-year increases will decline further in May.

Also the personal saving rate declined to 3.4% in April.

Earlier employment posts:
• May Employment Report: 69,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
• May Employment Summary and Discussion
• Employment Graphs