by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 05:47:00 PM

Two foreclosure reports: one national predicting an increase in distressed sales; the other regional (west) predicting less foreclosure inventory. Both could be correct ... (Update: the reports have conflicting data for California - on that one is probably wrong!)

RealtyTrac released their midyear foreclosure report this morning: 1 Million Properties With Foreclosure Filings in First Half of 2012

Overall foreclosure activity was down in the second quarter, driven primarily by a drop in bank repossessions (REOs), but 311,010 properties started the foreclosure process during the quarter, a 9 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 6 percent increase from the second quarter of 2011 — the first year-over-year increase in quarterly foreclosure starts since the fourth quarter of 2009.

A total of 31 states posted year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts in the second quarter — 17 judicial foreclosure states and 14 non-judicial foreclosure states.

"Additional scrutiny on how lenders and servicers process foreclosures, along with aggressive foreclosure prevention efforts by the federal government and several state governments, continue to keep a lid on the foreclosure problem at a national level,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac. “Still, foreclosure starts began boiling over in more markets in the first half of the year, particularly in the second quarter, when rising foreclosure starts spread from primarily judicial foreclosure states in the first quarter to more than half of all non-judicial foreclosure states in the second quarter.

“Lenders and servicers are slowly but surely catching up with the backlog of delinquent loans that under normal circumstances would have started the foreclosure process last year, and that catching up is why the average time to complete the foreclosure process started to level off or decrease in some states in the second quarter,” Moore added. “The increases in foreclosure starts in the first half of the year will likely translate into more short sales and bank repossessions in the second half of the year and into next year.”

And from Foreclosure Radar (just a few states): Foreclosure Inventory Continues To Decline

June 2012 Foreclosure Sales were significantly down in the three largest foreclosure states in our coverage area. California Foreclosure Sales were down 13.4 percent over last month, and down 48.8 percent vs. June 2011. Arizona Foreclosure Sales were down 18.5 percent over last month, and down 42.1 percent vs. June 2011. Nevada Foreclosure Sales were down 14.6 percent over last month, and down 72.1 percent vs. June 2011 driven by the new regulation that took effect in October 2011. In addition, Foreclosure Filings are flat to down in all states in our coverage area, both on a month over month basis and vs. previous year. Arizona Notice of Sales were down 27.7 percent over last month, Nevada Notice of Defaults were down 22.7 percent over last month, and California Notice of Defaults were basically flat, being down 0.9 percent over last month.

... with the declining level of Foreclosure Sales the inventory will continue to decrease. In California, banks take on average 272 days to resell properties they take back at auction, thus, Realtors, investors, and homebuyers should brace themselves for significantly less inventory in next years' selling season.