RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2012 08:17:00 PM
Friday, July 27, 2012
Zillow forecasts 1% Year-over-year decline for May Case-Shiller House Price index
Note: The Case-Shiller report is for May (really an average of prices in March, April and May). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data
I think it is too early to look for a year-over-year increase in Case-Shiller prices, although some analysts think it is possible in the May report. We are definitely getting close - and it will make headlines when it happens.
Zillow Forecast: Zillow Forecast: May Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 1% Decline from One Year Ago
On Tuesday, July 31st, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for May will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 1 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 1.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from April to May will be 0.8 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.9 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series and the May Zillow Home Value Index data, and national foreclosure re-sales.Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.
May is the fourth consecutive month with monthly appreciation for the Case-Shiller indices, with May projected to be a bit stronger than the previous two months.
One of the keys this year is to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 2.2% and 1.9% YoY respectively in April, after declining 2.9% and 2.6% in March. Zillow is forecasting a significantly smaller year-over-year decline in May.
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (year ago) | May 2011 | 153.33 | 154.58 | 139.88 | 141.03 |
| Case-Shiller (last month) | April 2012 | 148.40 | 151.28 | 135.80 | 138.55 |
| Zillow May Forecast | YoY | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| MoM | 2.0% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 151.4 | 152.6 | 138.5 | 139.6 | |
| Current Post Bubble Low | 146.51 | 149.21 | 134.08 | 136.49 | |
| Date of Post Bubble Low | March 2012 | January 2012 | March 2012 | January 2012 | |
| Above Post Bubble Low | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts | |||||
