by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 04:15:00 PM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for June today. According to LPS, 7.14% of mortgages were delinquent in June, up from 6.91% in May, and down from 7.71%% in June 2011.

LPS reports that 4.09% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down slightly from 4.17% in May, and down slightly from 4.13% in June 2011.

This gives a total of 11.23% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 2,012,000 loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1,590,000 loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2,061,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 5,663,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in June. This is down from 6,114,000 in June 2011.

This following graph shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

Click on graph for larger image.

The total delinquency rate has fallen to 7.14% from the peak in January 2010 of 10.97%. A normal rate is probably in the 4% to 5% range, so there is a long ways to go.

The in-foreclosure rate was at 4.09%. There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.06 million).

The second graph shows percent of loans in the foreclosure process by process (Judicial vs. non-judicial).

Foreclosure inventory in judicial states is 6.42%, far above the level in non-judicial states (2.41%). The national average is 4.09%. A key change is that foreclosure inventory is now declining in judicial states too. Foreclosure inventory in non-judicial states has been falling since late 2010.

The third graph shows GSE prepayment speed by current LTV.

From LPS:

The June Mortgage Monitor report ... shows that while overall mortgage prepayment activity remains stable, despite historically low rates, the federal government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) has seen considerable activity since the beginning of 2012.

“For this month’s Mortgage Monitor, we looked at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [GSE] 30-year fixed-rate loans across a variety of loan-to-value ratios,” explained Herb Blecher, senior vice president, LPS Applied Analytics. “Since the beginning of this year, high loan-to-value refinances have increased significantly. As an example, 2006 vintage GSE loans with six percent interest rates and LTV ratios between 100 and 125 percent increased from a 10 percent annualized prepayment rate at the end of 2011 to more than 40 percent in June 2012. Our data also shows that this rise in loan activity extends beyond that subsection – the same type of increase holds true across other vintages with the same characteristics.”