by Calculated Risk on 9/05/2012 07:18:00 PM

Usually during the first week of the month, all of the discussion would be about the employment report. This month focus is on the ECB ...

ECB Governing Council meeting times:
• 7:45 AM ET (1.45 PM CET) Monetary Policy Decision. The expectation is rates will be cut 25 bps.

• 8:30 AM ET (2.30 PM CET) ECB President Mario Draghi Press conference. The expectation is Draghi will announce some sort of short term bond buying program.

Note: I'll post the US data in the morning. For updates on the ECB, I recommend Alphaville. Here is the ECB website and press conference page.

From Cardiff Garcia at Alphaville: More questions pre-Draghi

There are some obvious questions going into Draghi’s meeting on Thursday after a few of the early details were reported today — What will be the terms of conditionality? Where on the curve will the buying be concentrated? — and we’ve got a few more.

From the WSJ: ECB Said to Ready Measures as Euro Zone Slide Deepens

The euro zone's economic downturn accelerated during the summer, economic reports Wednesday suggest, raising concerns that even aggressive anticrisis measures from the European Central Bank won't be enough to keep the euro bloc from sliding into a deep recession.
...
The reports raise a vexing problem for ECB policy makers. Even if they announce detailed plans to buy government bonds as a means to lower borrowing costs for crisis-hit countries, the measures' effectiveness may be limited by high unemployment, weak consumer confidence and stagnant growth prospects.

"In the next three to six months, there is nothing the ECB can do to prevent a further slowdown from materializing," said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING Bank.

On Thursday:
• At 8:15 AM ET, the ADP Employment Report for August will be released. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 149,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from the 163,000 reported last month.

• At 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 370 thousand from 374 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index (Services) for August will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 53.0 from 52.6 in July.


Another question for the September economic contest: