by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2013 08:44:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.7% from December 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for for December, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $415.7 billion, an increase of 0.5 percent from the previous month and 4.7 percent above December 2011. ... The October to November 2012 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent to +0.4 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for November were revised up to a 0.4% gain.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 25.4% from the bottom, and now 9.7% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)


The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes).

 Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.3%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 22.5% from the bottom, and now 10.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.1% on a YoY basis (4.7% for all retail sales).

This was above the consensus forecast of a 0.3% increase, and suggests the initial "soft" reports for December were too pessimistic.