by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2013 04:00:00 PM

Based on an estimate from AutoData Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 15.29 million SAAR in January. That is up 10% from January 2012, and down slightly from the sales rate last month.

This was at the consensus forecast of 15.3 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).  

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for January (red, light vehicle sales of 15.29 million SAAR from AutoData).

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a solid start to the new year.    After three consecutive years of double digit auto sales growth, the growth rate will probably slow in 2013 - but this will still be another positive year for the auto industry.

Even if sales average this rate all year, sales would be up about 6% from 2012.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession, and that sales have increased significantly from the bottom.