by Calculated Risk on 4/27/2013 04:06:00 PM

This will be a very busy week for economic data. The key report week is the April employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday, vehicle sales for April also on Wednesday, the March trade report on Thursday, and the ISM service index on Friday.

Also, there is an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

----- Monday, Apr 29th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for March. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in March, and for 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in this index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is a decrease to 5.0 from 7.4 in March (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, Apr 30th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. Although this is the February report, it is really a 3 month average of December, January and February.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through January 2013 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 9.0% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for February. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 8.9% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.7% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for the index to be unchanged at 52.4.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for April. The consensus is for the index to increase to 62.0 from 59.7.

10:00 AM: Q1 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS) and this survey probably shouldn't be used to estimate the excess vacant housing supply.

----- Wednesday, May 1st -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 155,000 payroll jobs added in April.  

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.0 from 54.6 in March.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a decrease to 51.0 from 51.3 in March.  Based on the regional surveys, a reading below 50 is possible.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in March at 51.3% in March. The employment index was at 54.2%, and the new orders index was at 51.4%. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for March. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement.  No change to interest rates or QE purchases is expected at this meeting.

All day: Light vehicle sales for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be at 15.3 million SAAR in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) unchanged from 15.3 SAAR in March.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

----- Thursday, May 2nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 345 thousand from 339 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

Exports increased in February, and imports were essentially flat.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $42.4 billion in March from $43.0 billion in February.

----- Friday, May 3rd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for April. The consensus is for an increase of 153,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April; the economy added 88,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.6% in April.

The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through January.


The economy has added 6.5 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (5.9 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 2.3 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 54.0, down from 54.4 in March. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for March. The consensus is for a 2.8% decrease in orders.