by Calculated Risk on 6/01/2013 11:21:00 AM

The key report this week is the May employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, auto sales also on Monday, the Trade Balance report on Tuesday, and the ISM service index on Wednesday.

Also, the Federal Reserve will release the Q1 Flow of Funds report on Thursday.

----- Monday, June 3rd -----
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the index to be unchanged at 52.1.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for an increase to 51.0 from 50.7 in April.  Based on the regional surveys, a reading at or below 50 is possible.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in April at 50.7%. The employment index was at 50.2%, and the new orders index was at 52.3%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.2 million SAAR in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 14.9 million SAAR in April.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the April sales rate.


----- Tuesday, June 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau.

Exports declined slightly in March, and imports declined even more, so the deficit declined.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $41.2 billion in April from $38.8 billion in March.

----- Wednesday, June 5th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 171,000 payroll jobs added in May.  

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 53.8, up from 53.1 in April. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for April. The consensus is for a 1.4% increase in orders.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, June 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 345 thousand from 354 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for May. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

12:00 PM: Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, June 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for May. The consensus is for an increase of 167,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May; the economy added 165,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.5% in May.

The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through April.

The economy has added 6.8 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (6.2 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 2.0 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for April from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $14.0 billion in April.