by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2013 11:05:00 AM

The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in May:

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during May 2013 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $874.9 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised April estimate of $870.3 billion. The May figure is 5.4 percent above the May 2012 estimate of $830.4 billion.
...
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $605.4 billion, nearly the same as the revised April estimate of $605.7 billion. ...

In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $269.5 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised April estimate of $264.7 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential spending is 52% below the peak in early 2006, and up 41% from the post-bubble low.

Non-residential spending is 32% below the peak in January 2008, and up about 26% from the recent low.

Public construction spending is now 17% below the peak in March 2009 and was up slightly in May.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is now up 23%. Non-residential spending is down slightly year-over-year. Public spending is down 4.7% year-over-year.

A few key themes:
1) Private residential construction is usually the largest category for construction spending, and is now the largest category once again.  Usually private residential construction leads the economy, so this is a good sign going forward.

2) Private non-residential construction spending usually lags the economy.  There was some increase this time for a couple of years - mostly related to energy and power - but the key sectors of office, retail and hotels are still at very low levels.  I expect private non-residential to start to increase soon.

3) Public construction spending increased slightly in May - and it is possible public construction spending is near the bottom.  Public spending has declined to 2006 levels (not adjusted for inflation) and has been a drag on the economy for 4 years. In real terms, public construction spending has declined to 2001 levels.