by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2013 08:43:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.7% from June 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $422.8 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 5.7 percent above June 2012.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 27.5% from the bottom, and now 11.8% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos increased slightly. Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.3%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 24.6% from the bottom, and now 12.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.9% on a YoY basis (5.7% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of 0.8% increase in retail sales.