by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2013 08:39:00 AM

Special Note: If Congress partially shuts down the government on Tuesday, some economic data will be delayed including the employment report.

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday. 

Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing report on Tuesday, September auto sales also on Tuesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing report on Thursday.

Also Reis is scheduled to release their Q3 surveys for apartments, offices and malls.

----- Monday, September 30th -----
9:45 AM ET: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for an increase to 54.4, up from 53.0 in August.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. This is the last of the regional manufacturing surveys for September. The consensus is a reading of 6.0, up from the reading of 5.0 in August (above zero is expansion).

----- Tuesday, October 1st -----
Early: Reis Q3 2013 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 52.9 from 53.1 in August.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.0 from 55.7 in August. 

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index was at 55.7% in August. The employment index was at 53.3%, and the new orders index was at 63.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 15.8 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 16.0 million SAAR in August.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

----- Wednesday, October 2nd -----
Early: Reis Q3 2013 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in September, down from 176,000 in August.

3:30 PM: Speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Brief Welcoming Remarks, At the Federal Reserve/Conference of State Bank Supervisors Community Banking Research Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

----- Thursday, October 3rd -----
Early: Reis Q3 2013 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 313 thousand from 305 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 57.0, down from 58.6 in August. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in orders.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for September. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

----- Friday, October 4th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs in September; the economy added 169,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 7.3% in September.

The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through July.

The economy has added 7.5 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (6.8 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still 1.4 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.