by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2013 09:45:00 PM

It seems likely that the House will shutdown the government Monday night. From the NY Times:

The Senate is expected to reject decisively a House bill passed over the weekend that would delay the full effect of President Obama’s health care law as a condition for keeping the government running past Monday, as Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic majority leader, expressed confidence that he had public opinion on his side.
...
Polls show that the public is already deeply unhappy with its leaders in Congress, and the prospect of the first government shutdown in 17 years would be the latest dispiriting development.

If the House does shutdown the government, people will forget before the next election - as long as any shutdown is short. (Not to be confused with not "paying the bills" or "debt ceiling" - refusing to pay the bills would never be forgotten). 

Monday:
• 9:45 AM ET, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for an increase to 54.4, up from 53.0 in August.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. This is the last of the regional manufacturing surveys for September. The consensus is a reading of 6.0, up from the reading of 5.0 in August (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 29th

• Q3 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2013

The Nikkei is down about 2.0%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 12 and DOW futures are down 100 (fair value).