by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2013 07:31:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small Businesses Skeptical About Future; Optimism Dips

Small-business owner optimism did not “crash “ in September, but it did fall, dropping 0.20 from August’s reading of 94.1 and landing at 93.9. The largest contributing factor to the dip was the significant increase in pessimism about future business conditions, although this was somewhat offset by a notable increase in number of small-business owners expecting higher sales. Overall, four Index components improved, four fell and two remained unchanged from August. While it is premature to measure the impact of the government shut-down on the small-business sector, it’s possible that the pending “crisis” impacted economic outlook. ...

Job Creation. Job creation was down in September. NFIB owners reduced employment by an average of 0.1 workers per firm in September after August’s slight gain (0.08 workers added on average) following three months of negative numbers.

Small business hiring plans decreased slightly in the September survey to a reading of 9 from 10 in August (zero is neutral). This is a solid reading.

In another small sign of good news, only 17% of owners reported poor sales as the top problem (lack of demand). This was down from 21% a year ago, and half the peak of 34% during the recession. During good times, small business owners usually complain about taxes and regulations - and those are now the top problems again.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 93.8 in September from 94.1 in August.   This is still low, but just below the post-recession high.

However this was before the U.S. House shutdown the government, and October's reading may be grim.