RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2013 08:56:00 PM
Friday, November 15, 2013
Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October
Economist Tom Lawler sent me an updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in October.
On short sales from CR: Look at the first two columns in the table for Short Sales Share. Short sales are down sharply from a year ago, and will probably really decline in early 2014. It appears that the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 will not be extended again next year. Usually cancelled debt is considered income, but a provision of the 2007 Debt Relief Act allowed borrowers "to exclude certain cancelled debt on [a] principal residence from income. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualifies for the relief." (excerpt from IRS). This relief expires on Dec 31, 2013. Complete all short sales by the end of this year!
Total "Distressed" Share. In all areas that have reported distressed sales so far, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year. Also there has been a significant decline in foreclosure sales in most of these cities.
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. When investors pull back in markets like Phoenix (already declining), the share of all cash buyers will probably decline.
In general it appears the housing market is slowly moving back to normal.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | Oct-13 | Oct-12 | |
| Las Vegas | 21.0% | 44.7% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 27.0% | 56.3% | 44.9% | 54.1% |
| Reno | 16.0% | 40.0% | 4.0% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 52.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 8.4% | 26.2% | 6.9% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 39.1% | 31.6% | 43.9% |
| Sacramento | 11.4% | 35.7% | 5.1% | 12.0% | 16.5% | 47.7% | 23.9% | 36.9% |
| Minneapolis | 5.1% | 10.4% | 16.4% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 35.3% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 22.1% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| Orlando | 15.1% | 29.8% | 20.7% | 23.2% | 35.8% | 53.0% | 54.8% | |
| California* | 12.6% | 26.7% | 6.6% | 17.1% | 19.2% | 43.8% | ||
| Bay Area CA* | 10.3% | 22.9% | 3.6% | 11.7% | 13.9% | 34.6% | 22.8% | 29.6% |
| So. California* | 12.9% | 27.2% | 6.3% | 16.3% | 19.2% | 43.5% | 27.5% | 32.8% |
| Hampton Roads | 25.5% | 28.3% | ||||||
| Northeast Florida | 35.7% | 44.2% | ||||||
| Toledo | 37.0% | 36.0% | ||||||
| Des Moines | 20.2% | 21.7% | ||||||
| Peoria | 21.1% | 23.7% | ||||||
| Tucson | 32.9% | 31.8% | ||||||
| Omaha | 20.0% | 20.4% | ||||||
| SE Michigan | 34.5% | 44.3% | ||||||
| Spokane | 13.8% | 8.4% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 18.4% | 22.9% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 18.4% | 22.9% | ||||||
| Birmingham AL | 21.0% | 30.8% | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||||
