RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2014 05:02:00 PM
Tuesday, January 07, 2014
Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index expected to show 13.7% year-over-year increase in November
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released last week. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. It looks like another very strong month ...
From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Show Continued Inflated Appreciation
The Case-Shiller data for October came out [last week], and based on this information and the November 2013 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released December 19th) we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (November 2013) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 13.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be 0.6 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November will not be released until Tuesday, Jan. 28.The following table shows the Zillow forecast for the October Case-Shiller index.
... the ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for November 2013 up 7.1 percent from year-ago levels. More on the differences between a repeat sales index, including the Case-Shiller indices, and an imputed hedonic index like the ZHVI can be found here. We expect home value appreciation to continue to moderate through the end of 2013 and into 2014, rising 4.6 percent between November 2013 and November 2014 — a rate much more in line with historic appreciation rates.
| Zillow November Forecast for Case-Shiller Index | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (year ago) | Nov 2012 | 158.26 | 157.70 | 145.81 | 145.31 |
| Case-Shiller (last month) | Oct 2013 | 180.27 | 178.04 | 165.91 | 163.90 |
| Zillow Forecast | YoY | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 13.7% |
| MoM | -0.2% | 0.6% | -0.1% | 0.6% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 179.9 | 179.2 | 165.8 | 165.1 | |
| Current Post Bubble Low | 146.45 | 149.65 | 134.07 | 136.89 | |
| Date of Post Bubble Low | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | |
| Above Post Bubble Low | 22.8% | 19.7% | 23.6% | 20.6% | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts | |||||
