by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2014 07:07:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts in 2014:

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.

Of course, with the terms of the bet, we could both "win" at some point during the year.

In January 2013, starts were at a 898 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win, starts would have to be up 20% or at 1.078 million SAAR in January (very unlikely due to the weather). For NDD to win, starts would have to fall to 798 thousand SAAR. NDD could also "win" if permits fall to 815 thousand SAAR from 915 thousand SAAR in January 2013.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for January. Total housing starts were at 999 thousand (SAAR) in December. Single family starts were at 667 thousand SAAR in December. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 950 thousand (SAAR) in January.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in producer prices (and 0.2% increase in core PPI).

• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, the FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of January 28-29, 2014.