by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2014 12:42:00 PM

This will be a busy week for economic data with several key reports including the February employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, February vehicle sales on Monday, January Personal Income and Outlays on Monday, the ISM service index on Wednesday, and the January trade deficit report on Friday.

The Fed will release the Q4 Flow of Funds report on Thursday.

----- Monday, March 3rd -----
All day: Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.4 million SAAR in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 15.2 million SAAR in January.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

9:00 AM ET: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index for February. 

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for an increase to 51.9 from 51.3 in January.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in January at 51.3%. The employment index was at 52.3%, and the new orders index was at 51.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, March 4th -----
No economic releases scheduled.

----- Wednesday, March 5th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 158,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 175,000 in January.  

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for a reading of 53.6, down from 54.0 in January. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, March 6th -----
Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for February. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 338 thousand from 348 thousand.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in January orders.

12:00 PM: Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, March 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for February. The consensus is for an increase of 150,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, up from the 113,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in  January.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.6% in February. 

The following graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through January.

The economy has added 8.5 million private sector jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (7.8 million total jobs added including all the public sector layoffs).

There are still almost 291 thousand fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

Imports increased, and exports decreased in December.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $39.0 billion in January from $38.7 billion in December.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for January from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $14.5 billion in January.