by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2014 11:23:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February were released last week (CoreLogic this morning). Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

It looks like the year-over-year change for Case-Shiller will continue to slow. From Zillow: Finally…We’re Seeing More of the Slowdown

The Case-Shiller data for February 2014 came out [last week], and based on this information and the March 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released April 21), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (March 2014) will show that the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 11.9 and 12.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, respectively. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from February to March will be 0.8 percent for the 20-City Composite Index and 0.7 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for March will not be released until Tuesday, May 27.

The Case-Shiller Comp 20 was up 13.7% year-over-year (YoY) in November, up 13.4% YoY in December, 13.2% in January, and up 12.9% YoY in February - and will probably be around 11.9% YoY in March - so the index appears to be slowing down.

Zillow March 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	Mar 2013	161.13	165.55	148.44	152.58
Case-Shiller (last month)	Feb 2014	179.96	184.04	165.35	169.21
Zillow Forecast	YoY	12.1%	12.1%	11.9%	11.9%
	MoM	0.4%	0.7%	0.5%	0.8%
Zillow Forecasts1		180.7	185.5	166.1	170.7
Current Post Bubble Low		146.45	149.81	134.07	137.10
Date of Post Bubble Low		Mar-12	Feb-12	Mar-12	Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low		23.4%	23.8%	23.9%	24.5%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts