by Calculated Risk on 7/01/2014 02:10:00 PM

We are finally seeing the slowdown in the year-over-year (YoY) housing price indexes that many of us have been expecting based on supply and demand.  With inventory increasing steadily - and by one measure now above 2012 levels for the same week - the price slowdown will probably continue (and we may see price index declines in some areas).

Note: on inventory, the NAR data for May indicated inventory was up 6.0% YoY, but still down 7.6% compared to May 2012.  Comparing to 2012 is interesting because prices started to increase in early 2012 (my bottom call in February 2012: The Housing Bottom is Here).

As an example, the CoreLogic index released this morning showed an 8.8% YoY increase in May; a fairly large increase, but the smallest year-over-year increase since late 2012 - and down from a 11.8% YoY increase a few months ago.

This slowdown in the house price indexes (even though expected) is a key story for 2014.  The next question is how much prices will slow.  Zillow is forecasting their index will increase 2.9% over the next 12 months. This will be a key story for the rest of the year and in 2015.

Here is a table of several indexes through April and May.

Year-over-year change for selected House Price Indexes
	Case Shiller1	CoreLogic	FHFA2	Zillow	Black Knight3	FNC
Jan-14	13.2%	11.4%	7.3%	6.3%	8.0%	9.1%
Feb-14	12.9%	11.8%	6.9%	5.6%	7.6%	9.2%
Mar-14	12.3%	11.0%	6.4%	5.7%	7.0%	9.1%
Apr-14	10.8%	10.0%	5.9%	5.3%	6.4%	8.4%
May-14	---	8.8%	---	5.3%	---	---
1Case-Shiller Composite 20 2FHFA Purchase Only Index SA 3Black Knight formerly LPS