by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2014 09:00:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released this morning. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.  

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast: Expecting Further Slowdowns Ahead

The Case-Shiller data for May 2014 came out this morning, and based on this information and the June 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released July 20th), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (June 2014) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 8.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from May to June will be flat for the 20-City Composite Index and 0.1 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for June will not be released until Tuesday, August 26.

So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in June than in May (9.3% year-over-year).

Zillow June 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	June 2013	173.17	171.70	159.46	157.92
Case-Shiller (last month)	May 2014	185.33	185.79	170.64	171.04
Zillow Forecast	YoY	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.1%
	MoM	1.0%	0.1%	1.0%	0.0%
Zillow Forecasts1		187.2	185.8	172.4	171.0
Current Post Bubble Low		146.45	149.87	134.07	137.13
Date of Post Bubble Low		Mar-12	Feb-12	Mar-12	Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low		27.8%	24.0%	28.6%	24.6%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts