RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2014 09:25:00 AM
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in September
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released yesterday. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. Note: Hopefully Zillow will start estimating the National Index.
From Zillow: Find Out Next Month’s Case-Shiller Numbers Today
The August S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data out [yesterday] showed more slowing in the housing market with the annual change in the 20-city index falling 1.1 percentage points to 5.6 percent. The national index was up 5.1 percent on an annual basis in August. Our current forecast for SPCS next month indicates further slowing with the annual increase in the 20-City Composite Home Price Index falling to 4.7 percent in September. The last time the SPCS 20-City index grew less than 5 percent annually was in October 2012, when the index grew 4.3 percent year-over-year.So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in September than in August (5.6% year-over-year for the Composite 20 in August, 5.1% year-over-year for the National Index).
The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) monthly increase in August for the 20-City index was 0.2 percent, and we expect it to fall 0.2 percent in September. We expect a monthly decline for the 10-City Composite Index, which is projected to drop 0.3 percent from August to September.
All forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on the August SPCS data release this morning and the September 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released October 22. Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for August will not be released until Tuesday, November 25.
| Zillow September 2014 Forecast for Case-Shiller Index | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (year ago) | September 2013 | 179.97 | 176.28 | 165.60 | 162.23 |
| Case-Shiller (last month) | August 2014 | 188.58 | 184.12 | 173.66 | 169.43 |
| Zillow Forecast | YoY | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 47% |
| MoM | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 188.0 | 184.2 | 173.3 | 169.7 | |
| Current Post Bubble Low | 146.45 | 149.88 | 134.07 | 137.06 | |
| Date of Post Bubble Low | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | Mar-12 | Jan-12 | |
| Above Post Bubble Low | 28.4% | 22.9% | 29.3% | 23.8% | |
| Bubble Peak | 226.29 | 226.87 | 206.52 | 206.61 | |
| Date of Bubble Peak | Jun-06 | Apr-06 | Jul-06 | Apr-06 | |
| Below Bubble Peak | 16.9% | 18.8% | 16.1% | 17.9% | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts | |||||
