by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2014 08:36:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The December 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity declined for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index dropped fourteen points to -3.6, its first negative reading in nearly two years. The new orders index also fell into negative territory, tumbling eleven points to -2.0, and the shipments index fell to -0.2. Labor market conditions were mixed, with the index for number of employees holding steady at 8.3, while the average workweek index declined to -11.5. ...
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Indexes assessing the six-month outlook were generally lower this month, but nevertheless conveyed considerable optimism about future business activity. The index for future general business conditions fell nine points to 38.6—still a fairly high figure by historical standards. emphasis added

This is the first of the regional surveys for December.  The general business conditions index was well below the consensus forecast of a reading of 12.0, and indicates contraction in December for the first time in two years.