by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2017 12:10:00 PM

Earlier: NAR: "Existing-Home Sales Jumped 4.4% in March"

A few key points:

1) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler's forecast was closer to the NAR report than the consensus.  See: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

"I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.74 million in March"

2) Warmer weather in February might have boosted sales for March and early April.

3) Inventory is still very low and falling year-over-year (down 6.6% year-over-year in March). More inventory would probably mean smaller price increases, and less inventory somewhat larger price increases.

I expect inventory will be increasing year-over-year by the end of 2017.

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales NSA in March (red column) were the highest for March since 2006 (NSA).

Note that sales NSA are now in the seasonally strong period (March through September).