by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2017 10:12:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 571 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up solidly.

"Sales of new single-family houses in July 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.4 percent below the revised June rate of 630,000 and is 8.9 percent below the July 2016 estimate of 627,000."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales over the last several years, new home sales are still somewhat low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in July to 5.8 months from 5.2 month in June.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 276,000. This represents a supply of 5.8 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In July 2017 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 54 thousand homes were sold in July.

The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for June was 26 thousand in 2010.

This was below expectations of 610,000 sales SAAR, however the previous months were revised up solidly.   I'll have more later today.