by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2017 03:38:00 PM

Based on a preliminary estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 18.0 million SAAR in October.

From WardsAuto:

Another month ended well beyond expectations, as replacement sales and inventory clear-out boosted the daily sales rate to a 15-year high.

U.S. automakers sold 1.35 million vehicles in October, resulting in a daily sales rate of 53,945, 2.6% above prior-year.

A 18.00 million SAAR was ahead of year-ago’s 17.80 million and behind prior-month’s exceptionally high 18.48 million mark.

That is up 1% from October 2016, and down 2.6% from last month.


Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for October (red, light vehicle sales of 18.0 million SAAR mostly from WardsAuto).

This was above the consensus forecast of 17.5 million for October (Note: Hurricane Harvey pushed down sales at the end of August - and this was part of the bounce back).

Still, after two consecutive years of record sales, vehicle sales will be down in year-over-year in 2017.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.